One engine, six leagues
We built the Premier League table to be league-agnostic on purpose. Every club carries an attack strength and a defence strength. Two Poisson distributions decide each match, home or draw or away, and we simulate the whole season 20,000 times to read off who wins the title, who reaches the European places, and who goes down. Nothing in that machine cares whether the crest says Arsenal or Atlético.
So we pointed it at the rest of Europe. La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 are live now, each with its own projected table and finishing-position cloud. The season data comes from the same free football-data feed the Premier League runs on. No new plumbing, just new leagues.
And one that breaks the mould: the Championship
The English Championship is the outlier we wanted most. Twenty-four clubs, forty-six games each, and no Champions League at the top. The reward for a big season is promotion, not a European place. So the board reads differently. The green column is the top six, which is the two automatic places plus the playoff, rather than a top four. The engine already tracked a top-six band, so it slotted straight in. The table just had to learn to be 24 rows tall instead of 20.
Our early read: Southampton (24%) and Middlesbrough (18%) are the model's clearest automatic-promotion picks, with Millwall, Derby and the clubs that came down from the Premier League, Burnley, Wolves and West Ham, filling out a crowded playoff race.
Who the model likes
Two runaway favourites: Bayern at 82% for the Bundesliga and, less loudly, Barça at 54% in La Liga. The tighter races are the interesting ones. Inter lead Serie A but only at 46%, and Ligue 1 gives PSG 46% with RC Lens a genuine 19% second, the kind of number a pure eye-test would never volunteer.
A few results will read as surprises. That is the model showing its work off last season's goals, not a typo. Where a club's summer looks nothing like its last-season shape, the projection will lag reality until we close that gap.
Where these four are still learning
One honest caveat, the same one we put up front for the Premier League in July. These four new tables are a stats blend of last season's results, regressed halfway to the mean. They cannot see this summer's transfers yet.
The Premier League table has since been anchored to the bookmakers' season-points lines, which price every signing in. We have not found a clean, free points-total market for La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 yet, so for now they are the honest last-season prior, clearly labelled as such. When we find the market lines, these boards get the same treatment, and we will write it up here.
What it means
Six league tables, one method, every number timestamped on the Ledger and graded once the balls roll. Preseason projections are the easy part to publish and the hard part to get right. So you get all of them, with a plain note on how much each one can and cannot see, and the results can judge us.
Pick your league and find your club. If the model has your side sixth and you have watched every home crowd since last October, tell us what it is missing.