TailgateNinjas · 2026
See the season coming.
Then beat the Ninjas.
The probability layer for sports — simulation-driven forecasts across seven sports, with games that let you challenge the model. Every pick lands on the record. Football's up first:
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Countdown to kickoff
43 days to kickoff
Forecast details
Published Jul 2, 2026, 3:01 AM·Model 2026.9.1·Inputs 2026-preseason-v1·Seed 217784358·Draws 10,000
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Make your picks
Free games against our model and your friends. No cost, no catch — just try to beat the Ninjas.
The main event
The 12-team field
The national board sets the field: five conference-champion auto-bids plus seven at-large teams, with the top four seeds on a bye. Toggle 16 or 24 to see how deep the race runs.
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Fan playoff poll
The fans' bracket
The 12-team field fans are calling — most-picked teams, seeded by where voters slot them, across 3 brackets. Gold marks the fans' pick to win it all.
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Every team
National board
Our overall ranking of every FBS team, with the playoff line marked. Tap a team for its full profile, schedule, and title chances.
Every FBS team, ranked. The Board score (0–100) blends the polls and our season projection; we sort by it and mark the playoff line.
Key: In the 12 On the bubble = next team up.
| Rank | Team | Board | 12-team | Wins | SOS | Vegas O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio StateIn the 12 | 75 | 52% | 9.3 | #1 | 9.5 |
| 2 | OregonIn the 12 | 74 | 64% | 10.3 | #27 | 10.5 |
| 3 | TexasIn the 12 | 71 | 49% | 9.3 | #3 | 9.5 |
| 4 | Notre DameIn the 12 | 70 | 83% | 11.4 | #50 | 11.5 |
| 5 | IndianaIn the 12 | 70 | 63% | 10.4 | #28 | 10.5 |
| 6 | GeorgiaIn the 12 | 68 | 43% | 9.4 | #26 | 9.5 |
| 7 | MiamiIn the 12 | 66 | 58% | 10.4 | #60 | 10.5 |
| 8 | MichiganIn the 12 | 64 | 32% | 8.2 | #17 | 8.5 |
| 9 | USCIn the 12 | 63 | 32% | 8.4 | #20 | 8.5 |
| 10 | Texas A&MIn the 12 | 63 | 31% | 8.4 | #15 | 8.5 |
| 11 | LSUOn the bubble | 63 | 30% | 8.3 | #8 | 8.5 |
| 12 | 63 | 22% | 7.5 | #9 | 7.5 | |
| 13 | 62 | 21% | 7.5 | #7 | 7.5 | |
| 14 | 62 | 31% | 8.5 | #23 | 8.5 | |
| 15 | Texas TechIn the 12 | 61 | 41%▼5 | 10.2 | #86 | 10.5 |
| 16 | 61 | 22% | 8.5 | #69 | 8.5 | |
| 17 | 61 | 25% | 8.6 | #39 | 8.5 | |
| 18 | 59 | 17% | 7.5 | #22 | 7.5 | |
| 19 | 56 | 21% | 8.5 | #47 | 8.5 | |
| 20 | 55 | 18% | 8.3 | #66 | 8.5 | |
| 21 | 55 | 16% | 7.5 | #34 | 7.5 | |
| 22 | 54 | 17% | 8.6 | #64 | 8.5 | |
| 23 | 53 | 14% | 7.5 | #45 | 7.5 | |
| 24 | 53 | 12% | 7.5 | #42 | 7.5 | |
| 25 | 53 | 12% | 6.4 | #10 | 6.5 |
