The weekly drop
The Drop
This week in the playoff race — who's surging, who's sliding, who crossed the cut line, and the one game that moves the bracket most.
Forecast updated Aug 17, 2026
Stories
Auto · The Ledger · Sep 1, 2026
The Week in Moves
The biggest swing in every sport this week, straight off the Ledger. The headline: Astros (MLB), up 30 points.
See the swings →CFB · Aug 17, 2026
The voters are fifteen spots high on Louisville
The preseason AP poll landed this morning. Our model rates all 136 teams and disagrees hardest on Louisville, Michigan and Notre Dame. Every number below was stamped before a game was played, and December grades it.
Read →EPL · Aug 12, 2026
The Ninjas took the table to five more leagues
One Poisson engine now runs six leagues, not one. La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have joined the Premier League, and so has the 24-team English Championship. Here's who it likes, and where it's still learning.
Read →EPL · Aug 12, 2026
We let the market redraw our Premier League table
Our July call couldn't see the transfer window. So we anchored the model to the bookmakers' season-points lines, which can. The table stretched out at both ends, and the risers the summer made are finally in.
Read →MLB · Aug 4, 2026
The Cubs bought an entire rotation. We moved them three wins.
Eighty-nine trades, and one club that actually got better. Here is the number we gave Chicago, and why it is smaller than the shopping list looks.
Read →MLB · Aug 2, 2026
We stopped printing 100%
The Dodgers made October in all 10,000 of our simulations. The board still shouldn't have said 100%, so it doesn't anymore. While we were in there, we checked what an actual ace would be worth to them, and got the answer wrong first.
Read →NBA · Jul 24, 2026
LeBron to the Sixers — and why we didn't crown them
Philadelphia adds LeBron to Embiid, Maxey and Jaylen Brown, and our number jumps them from a 9.7% afterthought to the East favorite at 17% to win it all. But our first pass said 25% — here's why we talked ourselves down.
Read →WNBA · Jul 15, 2026
The WNBA gets a number
We turned the model loose on the WNBA. Minnesota is the clear favorite at 39% to win it all — but the field behind them is wide open, and almost nobody else is putting an honest probability on any of it.
Read →EPL · Jul 10, 2026
The Ninjas cross the pond: our Premier League call
We built a model for the Premier League. It makes Arsenal a narrow 39% favorite over Manchester City, and gives each of the promoted three a coin-flip shot at going straight back down.
Read →CFB · Jul 2, 2026
Does the SEC floor exist? We checked.
Everyone believes a bad SEC team beats a good Big 12 team. The scoreboards from the last four seasons — 6–11, outscored by six a game — disagree.
Read →CFB · Jul 2, 2026
Introducing The Table: college football with no dead games
136 clubs, two tiers, four up and four down — and a season that ends with the Drop Games: finish last in your division and you play win-or-go-down for your top-flight life.
Read →NFL · Jul 2, 2026
One month later: what the Myles Garrett trade did to the NFL board
Vegas moved within hours of the June 2 blockbuster. Here's what the new line actually means in playoff and Super Bowl odds.
Read →CFB · Jul 1, 2026
Texas Tech loses its QB — and keeps its playoff spot. Barely.
Brendan Sorsby's gambling case ended his college career. Here's exactly what we changed, what moved, and why the Red Raiders still open ahead of BYU.
Read →Biggest movers
Movement tracking kicks in with the next forecast update — once a second board publishes, this is where the week's biggest playoff-odds swings and cut-line crossings land. For now, dive into the national board and The Cut Line.
Game of the week
#19SMU
52% to win
Florida State
48% to win
Why it matters · A toss-up with real playoff stakes.
SMU −3.5 · Open matchup →
