Premier League · 2026/27
The Ninjas' Table
Where the model says all 20 finish — title, top-4 (Champions League) and relegation odds for the 2026/27 season. The season opens 21 August; until it does, this is the pure preseason projection.
Read the call: the Ninjas cross the pond →- 1
Arsenal39%82%—68 - 2
Man City33%79%—67 - 3
Man United7%40%2%59 - 4
Liverpool3%26%4%56 - 5
Aston Villa3%22%5%55 - 6
Chelsea2%20%5%54 - 7
Brighton Hove2%20%6%54 - 8
Bournemouth2%18%6%54 - 9
Brentford2%17%7%53 - 10
Newcastle1%12%10%52 - 11
Nottingham1%11%11%51 - 12
Everton1%11%11%51 - 13
Fulham1%10%12%51 - 14
Sunderland1%9%14%50 - 15
Leeds United1%8%14%50 - 16
Tottenham1%7%16%49 - 17
Crystal Palace—6%18%49 - 18
Hull Citypromoted—1%53%41 - 19
Ipswich Townpromoted—1%53%41 - 20
Coventry Citypromoted—1%53%41
Where they finish
The table isn't a ranking — it's a cloud. Each row is a club, each column a finishing spot across 20,000 simulated seasons. Brighter = more likely; gold is the title, green a top-four Champions League place, red the drop.
ARSMCIMUNLIVAVLCHEBHABOUBRENEWNOTEVEFULSUNLEETOTCRYHULIPSCOVHow the Ninjas call it
Every club carries an attack and defense strength learned from last season's results, then regressed halfway to the league average — the shrinkage that backtested best across three seasons (one season overstates the gaps, and it can't see summer transfers). Those feed two independent Poisson distributions per match — home/draw/away — and we simulate the full 380-game season 20,000 times to read off how often each club wins the title, finishes top four, or goes down. Promoted clubs inherit last season's relegation-zone profile. Once the season kicks off, real results replace the simulated ones and the numbers move.