Premier League · 2026/27
Updated Sep 1, 2026The Ninjas' Table
Where the model says all 20 finish — title, top-4 (Champions League) and relegation odds for the 2026/27 season. The season opens 21 August; until it does, this is the pure preseason projection.
- 1
Arsenal49%96%—80 - 2
Man City33%92%—77 - 3
Chelsea8%68%—70 - 4
Liverpool6%61%—69 - 5
Man United4%52%—67 - 6
Tottenham—10%—58 - 7
Aston Villa—6%1%56 - 8
Brighton Hove—5%1%54 - 9
Newcastle—4%1%54 - 10
Everton—2%3%51 - 11
Brentford—2%3%51 - 12
Bournemouth—1%5%48 - 13
Leeds United—1%6%48 - 14
Nottingham——7%47 - 15
Crystal Palace——13%44 - 16
Sunderland——18%43 - 17
Fulham——19%42 - 18
Ipswich Townpromoted——61%35 - 19
Coventry Citypromoted——76%32 - 20
Hull Citypromoted——87%30
Where they finish
The table isn't a ranking — it's a cloud. Each row is a club, each column a finishing spot across 20,000 simulated seasons. Brighter = more likely; gold is the title, green a top-four Champions League place, red the drop.
ARSMCICHELIVMUNTOTAVLBHANEWEVEBREBOULEENOTCRYSUNFULIPSCOVHULHow the Ninjas call it
Every club carries an attack and defense strength learned from last season's results, then regressed halfway to the league average — the shrinkage that backtested best across three seasons (one season overstates the gaps). Those strengths are then anchored to the bookmakers' season-points totals, which price in every signing and departure — so unlike our other leagues, this table can see the transfer window. Those feed two independent Poisson distributions per match — home/draw/away — and we simulate the full 380-game season 20,000 times to read off how often each club wins the title, finishes top four, or goes down. Promoted clubs inherit last season's relegation-zone profile. Once the season kicks off, real results replace the simulated ones and the numbers move.