AL West · 2026
Athletics
53-85 · 4th in AL West · 17 GB · L4
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
<1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
63
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-198
597 RS / 795 RA
Pythag record
51-87
37% deserved
Luck
+1.7
W vs Pythag
On pace
62
at current W-L rate
At 53-85 with a -198 run differential, the Athletics are on pace for about 62 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 1.7 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 63 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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