AL East · 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
68-70 · 5th in AL East · 14.5 GB · W3
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
18%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
80
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-50
548 RS / 598 RA
Pythag record
63-75
46% deserved
Luck
+4.5
W vs Pythag
On pace
80
at current W-L rate
At 68-70 with a -50 run differential, the Blue Jays are on pace for about 80 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.5 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 80 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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