AL East · 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
45-49 · 3rd in AL East · 11 GB · W3
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
13%
Win division
0%
top seed 0%
Win World Series
0%
Proj wins
77
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-33
381 RS / 414 RA
Pythag record
43-51
46% deserved
Luck
+1.6
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
78
of 162
At 45-49 with a -33 run differential, the Blue Jays are on pace for about 78 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 1.6 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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