NL Central · 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
68-70 · 3rd in NL Central · 17 GB · L2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
79
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-15
610 RS / 625 RA
Pythag record
67-71
49% deserved
Luck
+0.5
W vs Pythag
On pace
80
at current W-L rate
At 68-70 with a -15 run differential, the Cardinals are on pace for about 80 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're in line with its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 79 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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