NL Central · 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
49-44 · 3rd in NL Central · 10 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
41%
Win division
0%
top seed 0%
Win World Series
1%
Proj wins
83
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+4
422 RS / 418 RA
Pythag record
47-46
50% deserved
Luck
+2.1
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
85
of 162
At 49-44 with a +4 run differential, the Cardinals are on pace for about 85 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 2.1 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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