NL Central · 2026
Chicago Cubs
78-60 · 2nd in NL Central · 7 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
99%
Win division
2%
top seed 1%
Win World Series
10%
Proj wins
91
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+141
742 RS / 601 RA
Pythag record
82-56
60% deserved
Luck
-4.1
W vs Pythag
On pace
92
at current W-L rate
At 78-60 with a +141 run differential, the Cubs are on pace for about 92 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.1 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 91 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
Loading the latest headlines…