NL West · 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks
73-66 · 3rd in NL West · 10 GB · L2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
44%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
1%
Proj wins
85
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+4
626 RS / 622 RA
Pythag record
70-69
50% deserved
Luck
+3.1
W vs Pythag
On pace
85
at current W-L rate
At 73-66 with a +4 run differential, the D-backs are on pace for about 85 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 3.1 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 85 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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