NL West · 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
82-55 · 1st in NL West · division lead · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
>99%
Win division
>99%
top seed 32%
Win World Series
17%
Proj wins
97
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+153
670 RS / 517 RA
Pythag record
84-53
62% deserved
Luck
-2.5
W vs Pythag
On pace
97
at current W-L rate
At 82-55 with a +153 run differential, the Dodgers are on pace for about 97 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 2.5 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 97 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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