NL West · 2026
San Francisco Giants
57-81 · 4th in NL West · 25.5 GB · W2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
<1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
68
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-70
567 RS / 637 RA
Pythag record
62-76
45% deserved
Luck
-4.7
W vs Pythag
On pace
67
at current W-L rate
At 57-81 with a -70 run differential, the Giants are on pace for about 67 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.7 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 68 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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