AL West · 2026
Seattle Mariners
64-74 · 3rd in AL West · 6 GB · L5
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
4%
Win division
4%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
76
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-73
538 RS / 611 RA
Pythag record
61-77
44% deserved
Luck
+3.0
W vs Pythag
On pace
75
at current W-L rate
At 64-74 with a -73 run differential, the Mariners are on pace for about 75 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 3.0 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 76 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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