NL East · 2026
New York Mets
62-76 · 5th in NL East · 20 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
<1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
73
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-52
565 RS / 617 RA
Pythag record
63-75
46% deserved
Luck
-1.5
W vs Pythag
On pace
73
at current W-L rate
At 62-76 with a -52 run differential, the Mets are on pace for about 73 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're in line with its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 73 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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