NL West · 2026
San Diego Padres
46-48 · 3rd in NL West · 14.5 GB · L2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
4%
Win division
0%
top seed 0%
Win World Series
0%
Proj wins
77
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-45
366 RS / 411 RA
Pythag record
42-52
45% deserved
Luck
+4.0
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
79
of 162
At 46-48 with a -45 run differential, the Padres are on pace for about 79 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.0 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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