NL West · 2026
San Diego Padres
73-65 · 2nd in NL West · 9.5 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
54%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
1%
Proj wins
85
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+15
588 RS / 573 RA
Pythag record
71-67
51% deserved
Luck
+2.4
W vs Pythag
On pace
86
at current W-L rate
At 73-65 with a +15 run differential, the Padres are on pace for about 86 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 2.4 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 85 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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