NL East · 2026
Philadelphia Phillies
78-60 · 2nd in NL East · 4 GB · W5
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
98%
Win division
8%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
2%
Proj wins
90
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+31
624 RS / 593 RA
Pythag record
72-66
52% deserved
Luck
+5.8
W vs Pythag
On pace
92
at current W-L rate
At 78-60 with a +31 run differential, the Phillies are on pace for about 92 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 5.8 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 90 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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