NL Central · 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
67-71 · 4th in NL Central · 18 GB · W2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
79
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+26
669 RS / 643 RA
Pythag record
72-66
52% deserved
Luck
-4.5
W vs Pythag
On pace
79
at current W-L rate
At 67-71 with a +26 run differential, the Pirates are on pace for about 79 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.5 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 79 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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