AL East · 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
55-37 · 1st in AL East · division lead · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
99%
Win division
58%
top seed 54%
Win World Series
7%
Proj wins
92
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+33
417 RS / 384 RA
Pythag record
49-43
54% deserved
Luck
+5.5
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
97
of 162
At 55-37 with a +33 run differential, the Rays are on pace for about 97 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 5.5 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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