AL East · 2026
Boston Red Sox
44-48 · 4th in AL East · 11 GB · W7
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
42%
Win division
1%
top seed 1%
Win World Series
2%
Proj wins
81
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+22
378 RS / 356 RA
Pythag record
49-43
53% deserved
Luck
-4.5
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
77
of 162
At 44-48 with a +22 run differential, the Red Sox are on pace for about 77 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 4.5 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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