AL East · 2026
Boston Red Sox
75-63 · 3rd in AL East · 7.5 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
99%
Win division
2%
top seed 2%
Win World Series
7%
Proj wins
88
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+85
618 RS / 533 RA
Pythag record
78-60
57% deserved
Luck
-3.3
W vs Pythag
On pace
88
at current W-L rate
At 75-63 with a +85 run differential, the Red Sox are on pace for about 88 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 3.3 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 88 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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