NL Central · 2026
Cincinnati Reds
43-50 · 5th in NL Central · 16 GB · W1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
0%
Win division
0%
top seed 0%
Win World Series
0%
Proj wins
73
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-54
388 RS / 442 RA
Pythag record
41-52
44% deserved
Luck
+2.0
W vs Pythag
Proj wins
75
of 162
At 43-50 with a -54 run differential, the Reds are on pace for about 75 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 2.0 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out.
The buzz
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