NL Central · 2026
Cincinnati Reds
65-73 · 5th in NL Central · 20 GB · L1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
<1%
Win division
<1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
74
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-113
570 RS / 683 RA
Pythag record
58-80
42% deserved
Luck
+7.3
W vs Pythag
On pace
76
at current W-L rate
At 65-73 with a -113 run differential, the Reds are on pace for about 76 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 7.3 wins luckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 74 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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