AL Central · 2026
Minnesota Twins
66-72 · 3rd in AL Central · 6.5 GB · W2
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
3%
Win division
1%
top seed <1%
Win World Series
<1%
Proj wins
77
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
-46
637 RS / 683 RA
Pythag record
65-73
47% deserved
Luck
+1.4
W vs Pythag
On pace
77
at current W-L rate
At 66-72 with a -46 run differential, the Twins are on pace for about 77 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're in line with its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 77 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
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