AL East · 2026
New York Yankees
78-60 · 2nd in AL East · 4.5 GB · L1
The Ninjas' October odds
Make playoffs
>99%
Win division
20%
top seed 20%
Win World Series
11%
Proj wins
92
of 162
The Ninjas' read
Run diff
+108
623 RS / 515 RA
Pythag record
81-57
59% deserved
Luck
-2.9
W vs Pythag
On pace
92
at current W-L rate
At 78-60 with a +108 run differential, the Yankees are on pace for about 92 wins. By Pythagorean expectation — the record their run scoring and prevention actually justify — they're 2.9 wins unluckier than its runs. Run differential is the single best predictor of future record, so it's the number to watch as the season plays out. Because the model trusts those runs over the raw record, it projects them to finish around 92 wins — the number in the October odds above.
The buzz
Loading the latest headlines…