Week 2 upset watch

Our model flags 1 upset candidate in college football Week 2: games where the market favors one side by 3.5 points or more but the model still gives the underdog at least a 35% chance. Updated August 29, 2026.

The rule, not a hunch: the market favors one side by at least 3.5 points, and our model still gives the underdog at least 35% to win. Every game that clears the bar is listed — we don't pick and choose, and we grade them here afterwards.