Methodology
How it works
Every forecast on the site comes from a simulation, not a hot take. The models are deliberately different — the right tool for each sport — but they share one standard: probabilities you can check, explanations you can read, and a public record you can hold us to.
Diverse models
Poisson goals for soccer, Pythagorean + log5 for MLB and the NBA, market-anchored for the NFL, a blend for college football.
One standard
Every sport reports the same outputs — game odds, expected finish, playoff and title probability — through shared components.
Receipts
Each number is timestamped to the Ledger and graded against results. We publish the misses, and we never backdate.
Pick a model
Who makes the 12-team Playoff, who's on the bubble, and who wins it all.
CFBD (ratings, returning production) + betting-market win totals & spreads · updated weekly in season
Playoff seeding and Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams.
Betting-market win totals, spreads & totals; optional documented overlay · updated weekly in season
Title, top-four (Champions League), and relegation odds for all 20 clubs.
openfootball (history) + football-data.org (live) — free, no quota · updated weekly (nightly in season)
Playoff, division, pennant, and World Series odds for all 30 clubs.
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com) — free, no key; documented roster overlay · updated daily
Playoff, play-in, conference, and championship odds for all 30 teams.
ESPN (records + point differential); market season win totals; documented roster overlay · updated preseason (daily once the season tips off)
Drivers' and constructors' championship odds for the rest of the season.
jolpica-f1 (the free Ergast successor) — standings + schedule · updated after every grand prix
Championship and playoff odds for every team, rest of season.
ESPN (free) — records + points for/against · updated weekly in season
See the running scorecard on the Ledger.