Premier League record

How to read these

Three outcomes, not two. Picking one of home, draw or away is a harder question than picking a winner, so these hit rates are not comparable to our football or baseball numbers. The Brier is summed over all three outcomes and runs 0–2, where the two-way sports' runs 0–1.

A draw is a miss, not a push. If we called a home win and it finished level, the hit rate counts that against us in full. The Brier is the fairer read of the same match: it scores every number we published, so rating the draw 30% and being wrong costs far less than rating it 8% and being wrong.

We rarely call a draw. Under this model the draw peaks around 29% while the two win chances split the rest, so it is almost never the single likeliest result. Every drawn match is therefore an automatic miss, which is what caps the hit rates below. The number that actually tests the draw model is on each league's card: what we rated those matches to draw, against how many did.