Receipts · Public record
TailgateNinjas has graded 652 MLB predictions, getting 376 right (58%), with a Brier score of 0.245.
Right side
58%
376 of 652
Brier score
0.245
lower is better
Vs base rate
+0.004
home wins 54%
On record
676
24 awaiting result
When we say a team has a given chance, do teams like that actually win that often? Predicted vs observed, by confidence band.
| Band | Games | We said | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 39% | 55% |
| 40–50% | 205 | 47% | 43% |
| 50–60% | 378 | 55% | 57% |
| 60–70% | 58 | 63% | 66% |
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