Week 7 · College Football

New Mexico vs Hawai'i prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Hawai'i a 56% chance to beat New Mexico in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#87 Mountain West Conference

New Mexico

1% to make the 12

@

#96 Mountain West Conference

Hawai'i

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadHawai'i −2.5Model
Projected scoreNew Mexico 25 — Hawai'i 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Hawai'i by a field goal — 56% to win.

Chaos meter87 · TOSS-UP
87/ 100
CalmMayhem

New Mexico

44%

to win

Hawai'i

56%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New Mexico
vs
Hawai'i
#74Offense · EPA/play#67
#45Defense · EPA/play#76
#55Explosiveness#27
#88Success rate#85
13%Returning production46%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

28 meetings all-time

Hawai'i leads 17–11

Last met 2024 · Hawai'i 38–30 New Mexico— Hawai'i won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New Mexico is hearing

What Hawai'i is hearing

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