Week 12 · College Football

Iowa vs Illinois prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Illinois a 54% chance to beat Iowa in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#22 Big Ten Conference

Iowa

17% to make the 12

@

#29 Big Ten Conference

Illinois

14% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadIllinois −1.5Model
Projected scoreIowa 25Illinois 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Illinois by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP
92/ 100
CalmMayhem

Iowa

46%

to win

Illinois

54%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Iowa
vs
Illinois
#80Offense · EPA/play#39
#18Defense · EPA/play#98
#134Explosiveness#117
#46Success rate#15
49%Returning production53%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

79 meetings all-time

Illinois leads 39–38–2

Last met 2023 · Iowa 1513 IllinoisIowa won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Iowa is hearing

What Illinois is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.