Week 11 · College Football

North Texas vs UTSA prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives UTSA a 54% chance to beat North Texas in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#37 American Athletic Conference

North Texas

4% to make the 12

#49 American Athletic Conference

UTSA

3% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadUTSA −1.5Model

Projected scoreNorth Texas 25 — UTSA 27

A coin flip. The model nudges UTSA by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP

92/ 100

CalmMayhem

North Texas

46%

to win

UTSA

54%

to win

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2025 efficiency · ranks

North Texas

UTSA

#2Offense · EPA/play#43

#74Defense · EPA/play#58

#34Explosiveness#30

#2Success rate#48

56%Returning production96%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

14 meetings all-time

UTSA leads 8–6

Last met 2025 · North Texas 55–17 UTSA— North Texas won

via Google News

What North Texas is hearing

What UTSA is hearing

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