Methodology · Formula 1
How the Formula 1 model works
Drivers' and constructors' championship odds for the rest of the season.
- Version
- v1 (points-per-race pace + race Monte Carlo)
- Updated
- After every Grand Prix
- Data source
- jolpica-f1 (the free Ergast successor) — standings + schedule
- Calibration
- New — the season plays out on the Ledger from here
The question
Who wins the drivers' championship and the constructors' championship — plus each driver's projected final points and odds of a top-three finish.
The data
The free jolpica-f1 API (the community successor to Ergast): current drivers' and constructors' standings and the full race calendar, refreshed after each Grand Prix.
How strength is measured
Each driver's pace is their season points-per-race — a simple, honest proxy that already blends car speed, driver, and reliability into one number. It's regressed lightly toward the field average so a small sample early in the year can't run away.
Recency & regression
Pace updates after every race as points accrue; the light regression fades as the sample grows. There's no separate car-development or momentum term yet.
Race-day chaos
Every simulated Grand Prix adds a large dose of race-day variance on top of pace, plus a fixed per-driver retirement (DNF) chance — because in F1 the fast car doesn't always finish, and that uncertainty is most of the story.
The simulation
A 10,000-run Monte Carlo plays out every remaining race: each one samples a finishing order from pace + variance (retirements sink to the back), awards standard F1 points to the top ten, and tallies both championships. Deterministic seeding means day-to-day movement on the Ledger is real, not simulation noise.
Postseason format
None — F1 is decided by points across the calendar. The stakes are the two championships, drivers' and constructors'.
Backtesting
This is a brand-new v1, so there's no track record yet — which is the point of putting it on the Ledger now and letting the rest of the season grade it honestly.
Known weaknesses
Points-per-race conflates car pace with luck and reliability; there are no sprint or fastest-lap points, no track- or weather-specific effects, and a single fixed DNF rate for everyone. Early-season and backmarker point projections are rough. It's a first cut, labeled as one — expect it to sharpen.
Every published number is timestamped to the Ledger the moment it's made and graded against results — nothing here is backdated. Percentages are rounded for readability.