Projected playoff field
The 14-team bracket
Our projected 2026 field — four division winners (seeds 1–4) and three wild cards (5–7) per conference, with the top seed on a bye. Wild-card favorites by the model.
Projected Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens
AFC · 27% to get here
Los Angeles Rams
NFC · 19% to get here
Model favorite to win it all: Baltimore Ravens at about 15%.
AFC
Top seed · bye
1Baltimore RavensBye
Baltimore RavensByeWild Card round
2
Buffalo Bills63%
Buffalo Bills63%7
New England Patriots37%
New England Patriots37%3
Kansas City Chiefs59%
Kansas City Chiefs59%6
Los Angeles Chargers41%
Los Angeles Chargers41%4
Houston Texans60%
Houston Texans60%5
Cincinnati Bengals40%
Cincinnati Bengals40%NFC
Top seed · bye
1Los Angeles RamsBye
Los Angeles RamsByeWild Card round
2
Green Bay Packers56%
Green Bay Packers56%7
San Francisco 49ers44%
San Francisco 49ers44%3
Philadelphia Eagles59%
Philadelphia Eagles59%6
Detroit Lions41%
Detroit Lions41%4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers42%5
Seattle Seahawks58%
Seattle Seahawks58%Seeds reflect projected finish; division winners are seeded 1–4 ahead of wild cards regardless of record. Percentages are the model's win probability for each wild-card matchup (higher seed hosts).