NFL · 2026
The road to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl and playoff odds from a 10,000-season simulation, updated every week — then pick against the model with your crew, free.
Baltimore Ravens — 15% to win it allFree · no money · every pick scored against a model that's on the record — 83% right on 6 graded CFB calls.
The Ninjas' call
Updated Aug 4, 2026Our projected bracket
The 14-team field the model projects today — four division winners seeded 1–4, three wild cards, top seed on a bye. Percentages are our win probability for each wild-card game. This is the bracket you're trying to beat.
Projected Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens
AFC · 27% to get here
Los Angeles Rams
NFC · 19% to get here
Model favorite to win it all: Baltimore Ravens at about 15%.
AFC
Top seed · bye
Baltimore RavensByeWild Card round
Buffalo Bills63%
New England Patriots37%
Kansas City Chiefs59%
Los Angeles Chargers41%
Houston Texans60%
Cincinnati Bengals40%NFC
Top seed · bye
Los Angeles RamsByeWild Card round
Green Bay Packers56%
San Francisco 49ers44%
Philadelphia Eagles59%
Detroit Lions41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers42%
Seattle Seahawks58%Seeds reflect projected finish; division winners are seeded 1–4 ahead of wild cards regardless of record. Percentages are the model's win probability for each wild-card matchup (higher seed hosts).
Our call, week by week
1 checkpoint on the ledgerEvery week we snapshot the Super Bowl board and leave it alone. These are the numbers we actually published at the time — none of it is quietly rewritten once we know how the season went.
Preseason
Aug 4
Now
live board
Fan playoff poll
Where the fans disagree
The 14-team field fans are calling — most-picked teams, seeded by where voters slot them, across 5 brackets. Gold marks the fans' pick to win it all.
AFC
RavensFirst-round bye
BillsPatriotsChargersTexansChiefs
BroncosNFC
Seahawks★First-round bye
Eagles49ersRamsBuccaneersPackersLionsSuper Bowl favorites
Projected division standings
AFC
AFC East
- Buffalo BillsProjected winner1067%85%9%
- 931%63%3%
61%4%<1%
5<1%1%<1%
AFC North
- Baltimore RavensProjected winner1170%91%15%
- 1021%60%2%
88%32%1%
61%7%<1%
AFC South
- Houston TexansProjected winner955%68%4%
927%43%1%
812%23%<1%
75%10%<1%
AFC West
- Kansas City ChiefsProjected winner1051%80%7%
- 1027%67%4%
- 922%63%3%
61%3%<1%
NFC
NFC East
- Philadelphia EaglesProjected winner1059%72%6%
929%49%3%
87%15%<1%
75%12%<1%
NFC North
- 1036%69%5%
- Green Bay PackersProjected winner1040%71%7%
917%47%2%
97%27%1%
NFC South
- Tampa Bay BuccaneersProjected winner949%52%2%
819%22%<1%
722%24%<1%
710%11%<1%
NFC West
- Los Angeles RamsProjected winner1146%82%11%
- 1131%77%8%
- 1023%70%6%
5<1%<1%<1%
Projected wins run each team's real 2026 schedule through the model, using posted Vegas spreads where they exist. Div = chance to win the division; Playoff = chance to reach the 14-team field; SB = chance to win the Super Bowl.