Week 5 · College Football

Navy vs Air Force prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Navy a 71% chance to beat Air Force in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#56 American Athletic Conference

Navy

3% to make the 12

@

#108 Mountain West Conference

Air Force

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNavy −8.5Model
Projected scoreNavy 30 — Air Force 22

Navy is the pick by 8.5, but it's live — 71% on the model.

Chaos meter58 · LIVE
58/ 100
CalmMayhem

Navy

71%

to win

Air Force

29%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Navy
vs
Air Force
#15Offense · EPA/play#20
#110Defense · EPA/play#136
#66Explosiveness#98
#9Success rate#14
97%Returning production63%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

58 meetings all-time

Air Force leads 34–24

Last met 2025 · Navy 34–31 Air Force— Navy won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Navy is hearing

What Air Force is hearing

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