#108 Mountain West Conference

Air Force

Projected 7–5 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Air Force win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#131

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Duquesne88%
W2vs North Dakota State88%
W4@ Nevada62%
W5vs Navy26%
W6@ N Illinois69%
W7vs UNLV39%
W8@ Wyoming53%
W9vs UConn51%
W10@ Army17%
W11vs San José St69%
W12vs UTEP82%
W13@ New Mexico32%

Chaos meter28 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Army → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 3%
Win conference: 7%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

vs Duquesne· W188% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Air Force finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#80

-3.2 · off #59 / def #101

Recruiting class

#129

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

63%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#59

EPA / play#20
Success rate#14
Explosiveness#98

Defense#101

EPA / play#136
Success rate#134

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

unrated

Portal out

2★ avg

Net

-4

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.