Week 4 · College Football

Rice vs Fresno State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Fresno State a 77% chance to beat Rice in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#115 American Athletic Conference

Rice

0% to make the 12

@

#72 Mountain West Conference

Fresno State

2% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadFresno State −11.5Model
Projected scoreRice 20 — Fresno State 32

Fresno State should handle it: 11.5-point edge, 77% to win.

Chaos meter46 · LEAN
46/ 100
CalmMayhem

Rice

23%

to win

Fresno State

77%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Rice
vs
Fresno State
#126Offense · EPA/play#103
#120Defense · EPA/play#31
#90Explosiveness#88
#128Success rate#105
75%Returning production17%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

7 meetings all-time

Fresno State leads 6–1

Last met 2014 · Rice 30–6 Fresno State (neutral)— Rice won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Rice is hearing

What Fresno State is hearing

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