#72 Mountain West Conference

Fresno State

Projected 7–4 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Fresno State win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#86

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ USC8%
W2vs Sacramento State95%
W3@ San José St76%
W4vs Rice79%
W5@ Washington St52%
W6vs Boise State42%
W7@ San Diego State40%
W9vs Oregon St82%
W10@ Utah State57%
W11@ Texas St46%
W12vs Colorado St82%

Chaos meter24 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to USC → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 3%
24-team field: 8%
Win conference: 9%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

@ USC· W18% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Fresno State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#66

+1.8 · off #100 / def #37

Talent composite

#90

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#103

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

17%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#100

EPA / play#103
Success rate#105
Explosiveness#88

Defense#37

EPA / play#31
Success rate#31

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.