Week 6 · College Football

Illinois vs Michigan State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Illinois a 61% chance to beat Michigan State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#29 Big Ten Conference

Illinois

14% to make the 12

@

#61 Big Ten Conference

Michigan State

2% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadIllinois −4.5Model
Projected scoreIllinois 28 — Michigan State 24

Illinois is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 61% on the model.

Chaos meter77 · LIVE
77/ 100
CalmMayhem

Illinois

61%

to win

Michigan State

39%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Illinois
vs
Michigan State
#39Offense · EPA/play#90
#98Defense · EPA/play#102
#117Explosiveness#99
#15Success rate#72
53%Returning production69%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

49 meetings all-time

Michigan State leads 27–20–2

Last met 2024 · Illinois 38–16 Michigan State— Illinois won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Illinois is hearing

What Michigan State is hearing

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