#61 Big Ten Conference

Michigan State

Projected 4–8 · 4 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Michigan State win? The Ninjas project 4.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

<1%

SOS

#29

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Toledo74%
W2vs E Michigan86%
W3@ Notre Dame2%
W4vs Nebraska40%
W5@ Wisconsin32%
W6vs Illinois37%
W7vs Northwestern50%
W8@ UCLA31%
W10@ Michigan10%
W11vs Washington29%
W12vs Oregon6%
W13@ Rutgers50%

Chaos meter28 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Notre Dame → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 4%
24-team field: 8%
Win conference: <1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

vs Toledo· W174% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Michigan State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#82

-3.4 · off #70 / def #81

Talent composite

#38

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#57

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

69%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#70

EPA / play#90
Success rate#72
Explosiveness#99

Defense#81

EPA / play#102
Success rate#111

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-18

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.