Week 10 · College Football

New Mexico vs Nevada prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New Mexico a 69% chance to beat Nevada in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#87 Mountain West Conference

New Mexico

1% to make the 12

@

#127 Mountain West Conference

Nevada

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNew Mexico −7.5Model
Projected scoreNew Mexico 30 — Nevada 22

New Mexico is the pick by 7.5, but it's live — 69% on the model.

Chaos meter63 · LIVE
63/ 100
CalmMayhem

New Mexico

69%

to win

Nevada

31%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New Mexico
vs
Nevada
#74Offense · EPA/play#127
#45Defense · EPA/play#91
#55Explosiveness#91
#88Success rate#120
13%Returning production66%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

11 meetings all-time

Nevada leads 6–4–1

Last met 2025 · New Mexico 24–22 Nevada— New Mexico won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New Mexico is hearing

What Nevada is hearing

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