#127 Mountain West Conference

Nevada

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Nevada win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#129

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Western Kentucky30%
W2vs Montana State77%
W3@ Middle Tennessee46%
W4vs Air Force38%
W6@ UTEP52%
W7@ North Dakota State64%
W8vs San José St50%
W9@ UCLA6%
W10vs New Mexico29%
W11@ N Illinois51%
W12vs Hawai'i31%
W13@ UNLV13%

Chaos meter30 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to UCLA → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Western Kentucky· W130% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Nevada finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#116

-13.4 · off #133 / def #81

Talent composite

#119

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#88

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

66%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#133

EPA / play#127
Success rate#120
Explosiveness#91

Defense#81

EPA / play#91
Success rate#87

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.