Week 11 · College Football

UNLV vs New Mexico prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New Mexico a 51% chance to beat UNLV in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#76 Mountain West Conference

UNLV

2% to make the 12

@

#87 Mountain West Conference

New Mexico

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNew Mexico −0.5Model
Projected scoreUNLV 26 — New Mexico 26

A coin flip. The model nudges New Mexico by a field goal — 51% to win.

Chaos meter97 · TOSS-UP
97/ 100
CalmMayhem

UNLV

49%

to win

New Mexico

51%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
UNLV
vs
New Mexico
#17Offense · EPA/play#74
#112Defense · EPA/play#45
#14Explosiveness#55
#23Success rate#88
15%Returning production13%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

28 meetings all-time

UNLV leads 15–13

Last met 2025 · UNLV 35–40 New Mexico— New Mexico won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What UNLV is hearing

What New Mexico is hearing

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