#76 Mountain West Conference

UNLV

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does UNLV win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

25%

SOS

#121

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Hawai'i53%
W1vs Memphis44%
W2@ North Texas23%
W4@ Akron72%
W5vs California44%
W6vs North Dakota State94%
W7@ Air Force61%
W9vs N Illinois91%
W10vs Wyoming82%
W11@ New Mexico51%
W12@ San José St72%
W13vs Nevada87%

Chaos meter23 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin the Mountain West Conference → the auto-bid and you're in.
RISKLose to North Texas → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 3%
24-team field: 7%
Win conference: 25%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

@ Hawai'i· W153% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where UNLV finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#57

+4.3 · off #25 / def #89

Talent composite

#51

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#95

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

15%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#25

EPA / play#17
Success rate#23
Explosiveness#14

Defense#89

EPA / play#112
Success rate#104

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.