Week 4 · College Football

New Mexico vs New Mexico St prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New Mexico a 64% chance to beat New Mexico St in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#87 Mountain West Conference

New Mexico

1% to make the 12

@

#124 Conference USA

New Mexico St

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNew Mexico −5.5Model
Projected scoreNew Mexico 29 — New Mexico St 23

New Mexico is the pick by 5.5, but it's live — 64% on the model.

Chaos meter72 · LIVE
72/ 100
CalmMayhem

New Mexico

64%

to win

New Mexico St

36%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
New Mexico
vs
New Mexico St
#74Offense · EPA/play#128
#45Defense · EPA/play#41
#55Explosiveness#58
#88Success rate#124
13%Returning production56%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Both sidelines

via Google News

What New Mexico is hearing

What New Mexico St is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.