#124 Conference USA

New Mexico St

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does New Mexico St win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#122

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Florida State7%
W1vs Mercyhurst82%
W2@ Hawai'i24%
W4vs New Mexico35%
W5vs Western Kentucky37%
W6@ FIU28%
W8@ Sam Houston52%
W9vs Jax State39%
W10vs Liberty30%
W11@ Missouri St36%
W12vs Delaware47%
W13@ Middle Tennessee54%

Chaos meter30 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Florida State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 5%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

@ Florida State· W17% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where New Mexico St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#123

-15.5 · off #112 / def #120

Talent composite

#130

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#126

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

56%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#112

EPA / play#128
Success rate#124
Explosiveness#58

Defense#120

EPA / play#41
Success rate#72

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.