Week 6 · College Football

USC vs Penn State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Penn State a 54% chance to beat USC in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#8 Big Ten Conference

USC

31% to make the 12

@

#16 Big Ten Conference

Penn State

25% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadPenn State −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreUSC 25 — Penn State 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Penn State by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP
92/ 100
CalmMayhem

USC

46%

to win

Penn State

54%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
USC
vs
Penn State
#4Offense · EPA/play#30
#65Defense · EPA/play#46
#21Explosiveness#101
#8Success rate#25
37%Returning production56%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

11 meetings all-time

USC leads 6–5

Last met 2024 · USC 30–33 Penn State— Penn State won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What USC is hearing

What Penn State is hearing

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