#16 Big Ten Conference

Penn State

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Penn State win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

25%

Title

Win conf

SOS

#38

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Marshall87%
W2@ Temple84%
W3vs Buffalo95%
W4vs Wisconsin76%
W5@ Northwestern65%
W6vs USC42%
W7@ Michigan27%
W9vs Purdue89%
W10@ Washington42%
W11vs Minnesota80%
W12vs Rutgers87%
W13@ Maryland78%

Chaos meter52 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Michigan → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 25%
16-team field: 32%
24-team field: 46%
Win conference: 4%
National title: 1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 25% → 25%

Pre 25%Aug 25%

Up next

vs Marshall· W187% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Penn State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#15

+18.1 · off #17 / def #22

Talent composite

#10

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#15

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

56%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#17

EPA / play#30
Success rate#25
Explosiveness#101

Defense#22

EPA / play#46
Success rate#59

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-10

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.