Week 3 · College Football

North Texas vs Texas St prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives North Texas a 61% chance to beat Texas St in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#37 American Athletic Conference

North Texas

4% to make the 12

@

#78 Sun Belt Conference

Texas St

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNorth Texas −4.5Model
Projected scoreNorth Texas 28Texas St 24

North Texas is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 61% on the model.

Chaos meter77 · LIVE
77/ 100
CalmMayhem

North Texas

61%

to win

Texas St

39%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
North Texas
vs
Texas St
#2Offense · EPA/play#10
#74Defense · EPA/play#71
#34Explosiveness#18
#2Success rate#29
56%Returning production93%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Both sidelines

via Google News

What North Texas is hearing

What Texas St is hearing

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