#78 Sun Belt Conference

Texas St

Projected 6–5 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Texas St win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

<1%

SOS

#68

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Texas4%
W2vs UTSA42%
W3vs North Texas37%
W4vs Incarnate Word94%
W5@ San Diego State36%
W7vs Colorado St79%
W8vs Utah State68%
W9@ Boise State24%
W10@ Oregon St67%
W11vs Fresno State54%
W12vs Washington St63%

Chaos meter30 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 2%
24-team field: 7%
Win conference: <1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ Texas· W14% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Texas St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#65

+2.3 · off #15 / def #117

Talent composite

#76

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#101

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

93%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#15

EPA / play#10
Success rate#29
Explosiveness#18

Defense#117

EPA / play#71
Success rate#61

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-3

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.