Week 2 · College Football
UTSA vs Texas St prediction
The TailgateNinjas model gives UTSA a 56% chance to beat Texas St in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.
#49 American Athletic Conference
UTSA
3% to make the 12
@
#78 Sun Belt Conference
Texas St
1% to make the 12
The model's read
SpreadUTSA −2.5Model
Projected scoreUTSA 27 — Texas St 25
A coin flip. The model nudges UTSA by a field goal — 56% to win.
Chaos meter87 · TOSS-UP
87/ 100
CalmMayhem
UTSA
56%
to win
Texas St
44%
to win
Who wins?
Be the firstTap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.
Think you know better?
Pick this game against the spread
Tale of the tape
2025 efficiency · ranksUTSATexas St#43Offense · EPA/play#10
#58Defense · EPA/play#71
#30Explosiveness#18
#48Success rate#29
96%Returning production93%
National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.
Both sidelines
via Google NewsWhat UTSA is hearing
What Texas St is hearing
Get The Drop
One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.
No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.