Week 1 · College Football

Sam Houston vs Troy prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Troy a 87% chance to beat Sam Houston in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#128 Conference USA

Sam Houston

0% to make the 12

@

#88 Sun Belt Conference

Troy

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadTroy −17.5Vegas
Projected scoreSam Houston 17 — Troy 35

Troy is a heavy favorite — 87% in the model. Upset alert if it's close.

Chaos meter26 · CHALK
26/ 100
CalmMayhem

Sam Houston

13%

to win

Troy

87%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Sam Houston
vs
Troy
#132Offense · EPA/play#114
#118Defense · EPA/play#51
#56Explosiveness#40
#125Success rate#117
90%Returning production33%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Sam Houston is hearing

What Troy is hearing

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