#88 Sun Belt Conference

Troy

Projected 7–5 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Troy win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#120

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Sam Houston84%
W2vs Alabama State92%
W3@ Missouri11%
W4@ Utah State44%
W6vs Southern Miss69%
W7@ Louisiana40%
W8vs UL Monroe81%
W9@ James Madison14%
W10vs Louisiana Tech60%
W11@ South Alabama49%
W12vs GA Southern67%
W13@ Arkansas St53%

Chaos meter28 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Missouri → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 4%
Win conference: 5%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

vs Sam Houston· W184% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Troy finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#87

-4.8 · off #95 / def #84

Talent composite

#99

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#82

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

33%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#95

EPA / play#114
Success rate#117
Explosiveness#40

Defense#84

EPA / play#51
Success rate#48

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-13

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.